The numbers regarding Black, Hispanic, and younger voters indicate Trump should win, even must win, because no Democrat can win without over-whelming percentages of those groups. Trump is taking too many of those voters to make the Democrats' numbers work. BUT you have not figured in the cheating that will inevitably occur. I still currently think Trump's margins will be sufficient to overcome the cheating, but their will to cheat to win can't be underestimated. Plus who knows how many Trump voters in NC and SC will be disinfranchised by the hurricane and FEMA.
Cheating by the other party has now created the PTSD factor in elections for the first time in a lifetime. The Republicans are doing all the work to right the ship, while Democrats vote no. It had to be said.
I've never paid attention to polls and have always considered them a crapshoot. It just suspends belief that she could be anywhere any of those numbers. That would mean there are some truly mentally deficient people in those states.
I could be mistaken, but IIRC the betting on presidential elections has been more accurate than the polling. I don't gamble, but IF the betting has proven to be more accurate than the polling, it interests me to that degree.
Edit: However, my vote isn't driven by any of these "inputs".
"Let’s just consider the “round number” math: If “independents” made up 1/3 of the 155 million votes in 2020, then that is 51-52 million votes. If Biden won them by a margin of 57.5 to 42.5, that is 7.6 million vote margin, with Biden having received somewhere around 29.4 million votes from independents."
___
Not long ago one of the polls showed Trump ahead with the independents by 14 points but Harris was up by something like 1%. I know, it didn't last but the issue wasn't whether the results with independents were correct or not the problem was similar to your point above; to wit, you can't have a Trump having 14% lead with 1/3 of the electorate that are independents (so, supposedly, something like 57%/43% in Trumps favor) with both Trump and Harris holding their 1/3 of the electorate, and have the top-line number with only a gap of 1%, with that 1% difference being on the candidate on losing side of the split of independents. The result should have been more like a 3.5% advantage for Trump or 51.3%/47.6%, Trump/Harris.
But, instead, to have a 1% advantage for Harris seems so back-a$$ward that it can only happen via conscious manipulation.
I have used data analysis software with its data tabulation routines for decades and the summarization routines build all of the tables in one pass of the data, producing the top-line numbers and all of the cross-tabs without the ability of anybody to play games to get results that don't make any sense. There's no possibility of the numbers coming out back-a$$ward.
Most times the poll tabulations I see just make no sense to me, mathematically.
I fear that Democrat fraud will overwhelm the margin of victory of legitimate votes, just as in 2020. Why do you think Democrats and R Never-Trumpers fought so hard to prevent any audits or checks after 2020? Compare to what happened after the 2000 election, both before certification and after the inauguration.
I hear you, and Lordy, I want to believe it. Yes, political campaigns are essentially massive Psy Ops. But, as Yogi Berra succinctly put it, "It ain't over 'til it's over." (FWIW, Gutfeld panelist Tyrus has been saying the same thing for weeks.) Thanks for the post.
For starters, this was pretty good analysis, and I expect and pray it will prove to be dead on. I have virtually NOTHING (not even substantive editorial gaffs) to pick nits with you in this article. I think it is amongst your best! (Yeah, there were places I was hoping your analysis had gone deeper, but I get the need to be pithy.)
BUT here’s where it becomes surreal in a very Orwellian way! (YOU FRAUD!!!)
Just yesterday, you responded to my hectoring you about your incessant, irritating, disgusting and chauvinistic bashing of Julie Kelly that “You know what I don't do? I don't go onto sites run by engineers or cardiac surgeons and criticize their views about engineering or medicine.”
Yet here you are chiming in on political/data/polling analysis issues… Where’s your degree/expertise on those fronts, big KAHUNA???
I literally pulled an entire paragraph from my response to you that alluded to the fact you chimed in on such analysis but thought it better to stick to your chauvinism. Well, that was yesterday, you friggin’ hypocrite!
I'm just looking at the history and relying on what others have said. I'm not saying "why" the numbers are wrong or what errors there are in the methodology -- but I can add, subtract, multiply and divide, and the math doesn't add up.
The bias in the polling has been there forever. The results always differ from the polls and always in one direction. After every election there is navel gazing and a promise to "look closely at why we missed," followed four years later by the same misses.
I know you don't like the to ban anyone but it sure would be nice to have a block feature on substack so I don't have to wade through what your nemesis above insists on posting.
Thanks for sharing the knowledge you picked up. It’ll save a lot of poll checking for me. What about the betting markets? I understand they are more accurate for some reason.
The numbers regarding Black, Hispanic, and younger voters indicate Trump should win, even must win, because no Democrat can win without over-whelming percentages of those groups. Trump is taking too many of those voters to make the Democrats' numbers work. BUT you have not figured in the cheating that will inevitably occur. I still currently think Trump's margins will be sufficient to overcome the cheating, but their will to cheat to win can't be underestimated. Plus who knows how many Trump voters in NC and SC will be disinfranchised by the hurricane and FEMA.
Cheating by the other party has now created the PTSD factor in elections for the first time in a lifetime. The Republicans are doing all the work to right the ship, while Democrats vote no. It had to be said.
Hope you got it right.
I have watching and waiting for someone to say the obvious. Close race my Aunt Sally.
I've never paid attention to polls and have always considered them a crapshoot. It just suspends belief that she could be anywhere any of those numbers. That would mean there are some truly mentally deficient people in those states.
What about the betting markets? (Since you said crapshoot).
Has no bearing on anything that concerns me.
I could be mistaken, but IIRC the betting on presidential elections has been more accurate than the polling. I don't gamble, but IF the betting has proven to be more accurate than the polling, it interests me to that degree.
Edit: However, my vote isn't driven by any of these "inputs".
Rassmussen polling and website is high quality info on this topic. They are saying the same thing.
"Let’s just consider the “round number” math: If “independents” made up 1/3 of the 155 million votes in 2020, then that is 51-52 million votes. If Biden won them by a margin of 57.5 to 42.5, that is 7.6 million vote margin, with Biden having received somewhere around 29.4 million votes from independents."
___
Not long ago one of the polls showed Trump ahead with the independents by 14 points but Harris was up by something like 1%. I know, it didn't last but the issue wasn't whether the results with independents were correct or not the problem was similar to your point above; to wit, you can't have a Trump having 14% lead with 1/3 of the electorate that are independents (so, supposedly, something like 57%/43% in Trumps favor) with both Trump and Harris holding their 1/3 of the electorate, and have the top-line number with only a gap of 1%, with that 1% difference being on the candidate on losing side of the split of independents. The result should have been more like a 3.5% advantage for Trump or 51.3%/47.6%, Trump/Harris.
But, instead, to have a 1% advantage for Harris seems so back-a$$ward that it can only happen via conscious manipulation.
I have used data analysis software with its data tabulation routines for decades and the summarization routines build all of the tables in one pass of the data, producing the top-line numbers and all of the cross-tabs without the ability of anybody to play games to get results that don't make any sense. There's no possibility of the numbers coming out back-a$$ward.
Most times the poll tabulations I see just make no sense to me, mathematically.
I fear that Democrat fraud will overwhelm the margin of victory of legitimate votes, just as in 2020. Why do you think Democrats and R Never-Trumpers fought so hard to prevent any audits or checks after 2020? Compare to what happened after the 2000 election, both before certification and after the inauguration.
I hear you, and Lordy, I want to believe it. Yes, political campaigns are essentially massive Psy Ops. But, as Yogi Berra succinctly put it, "It ain't over 'til it's over." (FWIW, Gutfeld panelist Tyrus has been saying the same thing for weeks.) Thanks for the post.
OMG Ship, this is surreal!
For starters, this was pretty good analysis, and I expect and pray it will prove to be dead on. I have virtually NOTHING (not even substantive editorial gaffs) to pick nits with you in this article. I think it is amongst your best! (Yeah, there were places I was hoping your analysis had gone deeper, but I get the need to be pithy.)
BUT here’s where it becomes surreal in a very Orwellian way! (YOU FRAUD!!!)
Just yesterday, you responded to my hectoring you about your incessant, irritating, disgusting and chauvinistic bashing of Julie Kelly that “You know what I don't do? I don't go onto sites run by engineers or cardiac surgeons and criticize their views about engineering or medicine.”
Yet here you are chiming in on political/data/polling analysis issues… Where’s your degree/expertise on those fronts, big KAHUNA???
I literally pulled an entire paragraph from my response to you that alluded to the fact you chimed in on such analysis but thought it better to stick to your chauvinism. Well, that was yesterday, you friggin’ hypocrite!
I'm just looking at the history and relying on what others have said. I'm not saying "why" the numbers are wrong or what errors there are in the methodology -- but I can add, subtract, multiply and divide, and the math doesn't add up.
The bias in the polling has been there forever. The results always differ from the polls and always in one direction. After every election there is navel gazing and a promise to "look closely at why we missed," followed four years later by the same misses.
I know you don't like the to ban anyone but it sure would be nice to have a block feature on substack so I don't have to wade through what your nemesis above insists on posting.
Thanks for sharing the knowledge you picked up. It’ll save a lot of poll checking for me. What about the betting markets? I understand they are more accurate for some reason.
Understood. and you did it quite well.
Numbers are numbers. Math is math.
Words are words. Interpretations are interpretation.
Pretty soon you will begin to see the similarities and who know??? Maybe you'll get the point.
You don't have to be a lawyer to interpret the law.
Any more than...
You don't have to be a political scientist/data analyst to interpret the polls.
(Not even going to get into the bias in the law/DOJ/courts etc., that's been pretty obvious to most of us too.)