What Do We Know So Far About Second Assassination Attempt On Trump?

The Complaint Affidavit Has Few Details But This Is The Path DOJ Is Likely Pursuing Today

As with any fast moving story, the “facts” about the second assassination attempt on former President Trump still remain largely unknown, but the internet is awash in supposition and conjecture based on sourcing of questionable reliability.

Yesterday Ryan Routh was arrested by local Florida police while he was driving north along Interstate 95. He was booked in connection with the events earlier at the Trump National Golf Course where former Pres. Trump was playing. The charges were violations of Florida state law and he was held in custody overnight.

This morning a federal criminal complaint was filed in the Southern District of Florida, alleging probable cause to believe that Routh committed two federal firearms offenses — 18 U.S.C. Sections 922(g)(1) and 922(k).

922(g)(1) is a crime involving possession of a firearm by a “restricted person.” This means he was a convicted felon and therefore prohibited from possessing a firearm, and this offense is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

922(k) is possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number, and this offense is punishable by up to 5 years in prison.

So the DOJ was fortunate to quickly discover that Routh had a prior felony conviction, making it very simply to quickly charge him with a federal crime that could be used to detain him in custody while it went about conducting the investigation. The SKS rifle that was seized also has an obliterated serial number, and that is a second federal crime he can be charged with.

The reason this is fortunate is that possession of a SKS in Florida is not itself a crime. Carrying an SKS in your vehicle is not a crime.

Being on the grounds of the Trump National Golf Course would probably be only a misdemeanor under Florida law.

I would expect that the feds and state/local are working together on getting a basic work-up on who the guys is, BUT the feds would have a greater ability to get information fast. We know from the Complaint Affidavit that a review of his social media turned up phone number that he listed for people to call him. They issued an administrative subpoena for subscriber information for that number and it came back to Routh. Connecting that number to him, the they asked for location information and learned that he had been at the location where he was spotted for almost 12 hours.

A search warrant was executed on his family home in North Carolina late in the evening on Sunday. I’m confident that sometime during the day on Monday the feds obtained and served search warrants on all the social media companies, for email accounts or other “internet service provider” information, and for the content of his phone and cloud storage if any. They will know very quickly who he has been in communication with over the past 7 days, or whether there is any other relevant content about what happened yesterday.

I’ve seen conflicting reports whether he fired at the agent or the only rounds were from the agent directed at him. But most of the reporting is consistent that Routh fired no shots and fled when the Secret Service Agent shot at him. So it is uncertain at this point whether there will be any federal charges related to acts taken by him against the Secret Service Agent.

As for his actions intended towards Trump, he could certainly be charged with “attempt” — the question is attempt to do what?

The statute most likely under consideration is a violation of 18 U.S.C. Sec. 115, which reads, in pertinent part, as follows:

(a) (2) Whoever assaults, kidnaps, or murders, or attempts or conspires to kidnap or murder, or threatens to assault, kidnap, or murder, any person who formerly served as a person designated in paragraph (1), or a member of the immediate family of any person who formerly served as a person designated in paragraph (1), with intent to retaliate against such person on account of the performance of official duties during the term of service of such person, shall be punished as provided in subsection (b).

Paragraph (1) includes within the protections of the statute any United States Official, United States Judge, or federal law enforcement officer.

(iv) if the assault resulted in serious bodily injury … or a dangerous weapon was used during and in relation to the offense, a term of imprisonment for not more than 30 years.

Since Routh didn’t actually fire any shots at former President Trump, the applicable charge would be an “attempt” to commit a violation of Sec. 115(a)(2). To be convicted of an “attempt” the Government would need to prove an actual intention to violate Sec. 115(a)(2), and the taking of a “substantial step” towards the completion of that offense. I think acquiring the SKS rifle, traveling to the Trump International Golf Course, and waiting in place for almost 12 hours would adequately meet the definition of a “substantial step” towards the commission of the offense.

The bigger hurdle — though Routh’s social media presence may made that relatively simple in the end — is to show that he intended to kill former President Trump in retaliation for his his performance of his duties during his time as President.

But this brings me back to the fortunate happenstance of Routh having a prior felony conviction in 2002, and that makes it easy to charge him and hold him in custody pending trial for the firearms charges. This affords them the time it takes to conduct a more thorough investigation of his background and the weeks/days leading up to his trip to the golf course in the early morning hours of a Sunday. He can be detained in custody up to 14 days with the filing of the criminal complaint before a grand jury indictment needs to be obtained. But having done a few dozen indictments just like this one, obtaining an indictment in this case would take about 5 minutes— and that’s if the clock started before I wandered over to the snack table in the grand jury room and grabbed a donut.